Economic Evaluation of Enhanced vs Standard Varenicline Treatment for Tobacco Cessation.

Importance: Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death and illness in the US. Identifying cost-effective smoking cessation treatment may increase the likelihood that health systems deliver such treatment to their patients who smoke. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of standard vs enhanced varenicline use (extended varenicline treatment or varenicline in combination with nicotine replacement therapy) among individuals trying to quit smoking. Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation assesses the Quitting Using Intensive Treatments Study (QUITS), which randomized 1251 study participants who smoked into 4 conditions: (1) 12-week varenicline monotherapy (n = 315); (2) 24-week varenicline monotherapy (n = 311); (3) 12-week varenicline combination treatment with nicotine replacement therapy patch (n = 314); or (4) 24-week varenicline combination treatment with nicotine replacement therapy patch (n = 311). Study enrollment occurred in Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, between November 11, 2017, and July 2, 2020. Statistical analysis took place from May to October 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was 7-day point prevalence abstinence (biochemically confirmed with exhaled carbon monoxide level ≤5 ppm) at 52 weeks. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), or cost per additional person who quit smoking, was calculated using decision tree analysis based on abstinence and cost for each arm of the trial. Results: Of the 1251 participants, mean (SD) age was 49.1 (11.9) years, 675 (54.0%) were women, and 881 (70.4%) completed the 52-week follow-up. Tobacco cessation at 52 weeks was 25.1% (79 of 315) for 12-week monotherapy, 24.4% (76 of 311) for 24-week monotherapy, 23.6% (74 of 314) for 12-week combination therapy, and 25.1% (78 of 311) for 24-week combination therapy, respectively. The total mean (SD) cost was $1175 ($365) for 12-week monotherapy, $1374 ($412) for 12-week combination therapy, $2022 ($813) for 24-week monotherapy, and $2118 ($1058) for 24-week combination therapy. The ICER for 12-week varenicline monotherapy was $4681 per individual who quit smoking and $4579 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) added. The ICER for 24-week varenicline combination therapy relative to 12-week monotherapy was $92 000 000 per additional individual who quit smoking and $90 000 000 (95% CI, $15 703 to dominated or more costly and less efficacious) per additional QALY. Conclusions and Relevance: This economic evaluation of standard vs enhanced varenicline treatment for smoking cessation suggests that 12-week varenicline monotherapy was the most cost-effective treatment option at the commonly cited threshold of $100 000/QALY. This study provides patients, health care professionals, and other stakeholders with increased understanding of the health and economic impact of more intensive varenicline treatment options.

Emergency presentations for farm-related injuries in older adults residing in south-western Victoria, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Farm workers are at high risk for injuries, and epidemiological data are needed to plan resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: This study identified regions with high farm-related injury rates in the Barwon South West region of Victoria, Australia, for residents aged ≥50 yr. DESIGN: Retrospective synthesis using electronic medical records of emergency presentations occurring during 2017-2019 inclusive for Local Government Areas (LGA) in the study region. For each LGA, age-standardised incidence rates (per 1000 population/year) were calculated. FINDINGS: For men and women combined, there were 31 218 emergency presentations for any injury, and 1150 (3.68%) of these were farm-related. The overall age-standardised rate for farm-related injury presentations was 2.6 (95% CI 2.4-2.7); men had a higher rate than women (4.1, 95% CI 3.9-4.4 versus 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.3, respectively). For individual LGAs, the highest rates of farm-related emergency presentations occurred in Moyne and Southern Grampians, both rural LGAs. Approximately two-thirds of farm-related injuries occurred during work activities (65.0%), and most individuals arrived at the hospital by transport classified as "other" (including private car, 83.3%). There were also several common injury causes identified: "other animal related injury" (20.2%), "cutting, piercing object" (19.5%), "fall ⟨1 m" (13.1%), and "struck by or collision with object" (12.5%). Few injuries were caused by machinery (1.7%) and these occurred mainly in the LGA of Moyne (65%). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This study provides data to inform future research and resource allocation for the prevention of farm-related injuries.

Advancing botanical safety: A strategy for selecting, sourcing, and characterizing botanicals for developing toxicological tools.

Increases in botanical use, encompassing herbal medicines and dietary supplements, have underlined a critical need for an advancement in safety assessment methodologies. However, botanicals present unique challenges for safety assessment due to their complex and variable composition arising from diverse growing conditions, processing methods, and plant varieties. Historically, botanicals have been largely evaluated based on their history of use information, based primarily on traditional use or dietary history. However, this presumption lacks comprehensive toxicological evaluation, demanding innovative and consistent assessment strategies. To address these challenges, the Botanical Safety Consortium (BSC) was formed as an international, cross-sector forum of experts to identify fit-for purpose assays that can be used to evaluate botanical safety. This global effort aims to assess botanical safety assessment methodologies, merging traditional knowledge with modern in vitro and in silico assays. The ultimate goal is to champion the development of toxicity tools for botanicals. This manuscript highlights: 1) BSC's strategy for botanical selection, sourcing, and preparation of extracts to be used in in vitro assays, and 2) the approach utilized to characterize botanical extracts, using green tea and Asian ginseng as examples, to build confidence for use in biological assays.

What to do after smoking relapse? A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial of chronic care smoking treatments.

AIM: To compare effects of three post-relapse interventions on smoking abstinence. DESIGN: Sequential three-phase multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART). SETTING: Eighteen Wisconsin, USA, primary care clinics. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1154 primary care patients (53.6% women, 81.2% White) interested in quitting smoking enrolled from 2015 to 2019; 582 relapsed and were randomized to relapse recovery treatment. INTERVENTIONS: In phase 1, patients received cessation counseling and 8 weeks nicotine patch. Those who relapsed and agreed were randomized to a phase 2 relapse recovery group: (1) reduction counseling + nicotine mini-lozenges + encouragement to quit starting 1 month post-randomization (preparation); (2) repeated encouragement to quit starting immediately post-randomization (recycling); or (3) advice to call the tobacco quitline (control). The first two groups could opt into phase 3 new quit treatment [8 weeks nicotine patch + mini-lozenges plus randomization to two treatment factors (skill training and supportive counseling) in a 2 × 2 design]. Phase 2 and 3 interventions lasted ≤ 15 months. MEASUREMENTS: The study was powered to compare each active phase 2 treatment with the control on the primary outcome: biochemically confirmed 7-day point-prevalence abstinence 14 months post initiating phase 2 relapse recovery treatment. Exploratory analyses tested for phase 3 counseling factor effects. FINDINGS: Neither skill training nor supportive counseling (each on versus off) increased 14-month abstinence rates; skills on versus off 9.3% (14/151) versus 5.2% (8/153), P = 0.19; support on versus off 6.6% (10/152) versus 7.9% (12/152), P = 0.73. Phase 2 preparation did not produce higher 14-month abstinence rates than quitline referral; 3.6% (8/220) versus 2.1% [3/145; risk difference = 1.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -1.8-5.0%, odds ratio (OR) = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9]. Recycling, however, produced higher abstinence rates than quitline referral; 6.9% (15/217) versus 2.1% (three of 145; risk difference, 4.8%, 95% CI = 0.7-8.9%, OR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.0-12.4). Recycling produced greater entry into new quit treatment than preparation: 83.4% (181/217) versus 55.9% (123/220), P < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Among people interested in quitting smoking, immediate encouragement post-relapse to enter a new round of smoking cessation treatment ('recycling') produced higher probability of abstinence than tobacco quitline referral. Recycling produced higher rates of cessation treatment re-engagement than did preparation/cutting down using more intensive counseling and pharmacotherapy.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities.

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Comprehensive Primary Care Smoking Treatment Program.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death and disease in the U.S. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness from a healthcare system perspective of a comprehensive primary care intervention to reduce smoking rates. METHODS: This pragmatic trial implemented electronic health record prompts during primary care visits and employed certified tobacco cessation specialists to offer proactive outreach and smoking cessation treatment to patients who smoke. The data, analyzed in 2022, included 10,683 patients in the smoking registry from 2017 to 2020. Pre-post analyses compared intervention costs to treatment engagement, successful self-reported smoking cessation, and acute health care utilization (urgent care, emergency department visits, and inpatient hospitalization). Cost per quality-adjusted life year was determined by applying conversion factors obtained from the tobacco research literature to the cost per patient who quit smoking. RESULTS: Tobacco cessation outreach, medication, and counseling costs increased from $2.64 to $6.44 per patient per month, for a total post-implementation intervention cost of $500,216. Smoking cessation rates increased from 1.3% pre-implementation to 8.7% post-implementation, for an incremental effectiveness of 7.4%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $628 (95% CI: $568, $695) per person who quit smoking, and $905 (95% CI: $822, $1,001) per quality-adjusted life year gained. Acute health care costs decreased by an average of $42 (95% CI: -$59, $145) per patient per month for patients in the smoking registry. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a comprehensive and proactive smoking cessation outreach and treatment program for adult primary care patients who smoke meets typical cost-effectiveness thresholds for healthcare.

Understanding different dominance patterns in western Amazonian forests.

Dominance of neotropical tree communities by a few species is widely documented, but dominant trees show a variety of distributional patterns still poorly understood. Here, we used 503 forest inventory plots (93,719 individuals ≥2.5 cm diameter, 2609 species) to explore the relationships between local abundance, regional frequency and spatial aggregation of dominant species in four main habitat types in western Amazonia. Although the abundance-occupancy relationship is positive for the full dataset, we found that among dominant Amazonian tree species, there is a strong negative relationship between local abundance and regional frequency and/or spatial aggregation across habitat types. Our findings suggest an ecological trade-off whereby dominant species can be locally abundant (local dominants) or regionally widespread (widespread dominants), but rarely both (oligarchs). Given the importance of dominant species as drivers of diversity and ecosystem functioning, unravelling different dominance patterns is a research priority to direct conservation efforts in Amazonian forests.

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential.

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2-5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151-363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Fully automated pipeline for measurement of the thoracic aorta using joint segmentation and localization neural network.

Purpose: Diagnosis and surveillance of thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) involves measuring the aortic diameter at various locations along the length of the aorta, often using computed tomography angiography (CTA). Currently, measurements are performed by human raters using specialized software for three-dimensional analysis, a time-consuming process, requiring 15 to 45 min of focused effort. Thus, we aimed to develop a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based algorithm for fully automated and accurate aortic measurements. Approach: Using 212 CTA scans, we trained a CNN to perform segmentation and localization of key landmarks jointly. Segmentation mask and landmarks are subsequently used to obtain the centerline and cross-sectional diameters of the aorta. Subsequently, a cubic spline is fit to the aortic boundary at the sinuses of Valsalva to avoid errors related inclusions of coronary artery origins. Performance was evaluated on a test set of 60 scans with automated measurements compared against expert manual raters. Result: Compared to training separate networks for each task, joint training yielded higher accuracy for segmentation, especially at the boundary (p<0.001), but a marginally worse (0.2 to 0.5 mm) accuracy for landmark localization (p<0.001). Mean absolute error between human and automated was ≤1 mm at six of nine standard clinical measurement locations. However, higher errors were noted in the aortic root and arch regions, ranging between 1.4 and 2.2 mm, although agreement of manual raters was also lower in these regions. Conclusion: Fully automated aortic diameter measurements in TAA are feasible using a CNN-based algorithm. Automated measurements demonstrated low errors that are comparable in magnitude to those with manual raters; however, measurement error was highest in the aortic root and arch.

The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit.

Understanding what controls global leaf type variation in trees is crucial for comprehending their role in terrestrial ecosystems, including carbon, water and nutrient dynamics. Yet our understanding of the factors influencing forest leaf types remains incomplete, leaving us uncertain about the global proportions of needle-leaved, broadleaved, evergreen and deciduous trees. To address these gaps, we conducted a global, ground-sourced assessment of forest leaf-type variation by integrating forest inventory data with comprehensive leaf form (broadleaf vs needle-leaf) and habit (evergreen vs deciduous) records. We found that global variation in leaf habit is primarily driven by isothermality and soil characteristics, while leaf form is predominantly driven by temperature. Given these relationships, we estimate that 38% of global tree individuals are needle-leaved evergreen, 29% are broadleaved evergreen, 27% are broadleaved deciduous and 5% are needle-leaved deciduous. The aboveground biomass distribution among these tree types is approximately 21% (126.4 Gt), 54% (335.7 Gt), 22% (136.2 Gt) and 3% (18.7 Gt), respectively. We further project that, depending on future emissions pathways, 17-34% of forested areas will experience climate conditions by the end of the century that currently support a different forest type, highlighting the intensification of climatic stress on existing forests. By quantifying the distribution of tree leaf types and their corresponding biomass, and identifying regions where climate change will exert greatest pressure on current leaf types, our results can help improve predictions of future terrestrial ecosystem functioning and carbon cycling.

Genomic medicine to reduce tobacco and related disorders: Translation to precision prevention and treatment.

Genomic medicine can enhance prevention and treatment. First, we propose that advances in genomics have the potential to enhance assessment of disease risk, improve prognostic predictions, and guide treatment development and application. Clinical implementation of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) has emerged as an area of active research. The pathway from genomic discovery to implementation is an iterative process. Second, we provide examples on how genomic medicine has the potential to solve problems in prevention and treatment using two examples: Lung cancer screening and evidence-based tobacco treatment are both under-utilized and great opportunities for genomic interventions. Third, we discuss the translational process for developing genomic interventions from evidence to implementation by presenting a model to evaluate genomic evidence for clinical implementation, mechanisms of genomic interventions, and patient desire for genomic interventions. Fourth, we present potential challenges in genomic interventions including a great need for evidence in all diverse populations, little evidence on treatment algorithms, challenges in accommodating a dynamic evidence base, and implementation challenges in real world clinical settings. Finally, we conclude that research to identify genomic markers that are associated with smoking cessation success and the efficacy of smoking cessation treatments is needed to empower people of all diverse ancestry. Importantly, genomic data can be used to help identify patients with elevated risk for nicotine addiction, difficulty quitting smoking, favorable response to specific pharmacotherapy, and tobacco-related health problems.

Native diversity buffers against severity of non-native tree invasions.

Determining the drivers of non-native plant invasions is critical for managing native ecosystems and limiting the spread of invasive species1,2. Tree invasions in particular have been relatively overlooked, even though they have the potential to transform ecosystems and economies3,4. Here, leveraging global tree databases5-7, we explore how the phylogenetic and functional diversity of native tree communities, human pressure and the environment influence the establishment of non-native tree species and the subsequent invasion severity. We find that anthropogenic factors are key to predicting whether a location is invaded, but that invasion severity is underpinned by native diversity, with higher diversity predicting lower invasion severity. Temperature and precipitation emerge as strong predictors of invasion strategy, with non-native species invading successfully when they are similar to the native community in cold or dry extremes. Yet, despite the influence of these ecological forces in determining invasion strategy, we find evidence that these patterns can be obscured by human activity, with lower ecological signal in areas with higher proximity to shipping ports. Our global perspective of non-native tree invasion highlights that human drivers influence non-native tree presence, and that native phylogenetic and functional diversity have a critical role in the establishment and spread of subsequent invasions.

Data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of tobacco treatment programs in the NCI Moonshot Cancer Center Cessation Initiative.

BACKGROUND: The Cancer Center Cessation Initiative (C3I) is a National Cancer Institute (NCI) Cancer Moonshot Program that supports NCI-designated cancer centers developing tobacco treatment programs for oncology patients who smoke. C3I-funded centers implement evidence-based programs that offer various smoking cessation treatment components (e.g., counseling, Quitline referrals, access to medications). While evaluation of implementation outcomes in C3I is guided by evaluation of reach and effectiveness (via RE-AIM), little is known about technical efficiency-i.e., how inputs (e.g., program costs, staff time) influence implementation outcomes (e.g., reach, effectiveness). This study demonstrates the application of data envelopment analysis (DEA) as an implementation science tool to evaluate technical efficiency of C3I programs and advance prioritization of implementation resources. METHODS: DEA is a linear programming technique widely used in economics and engineering for assessing relative performance of production units. Using data from 16 C3I-funded centers reported in 2020, we applied input-oriented DEA to model technical efficiency (i.e., proportion of observed outcomes to benchmarked outcomes for given input levels). The primary models used the constant returns-to-scale specification and featured cost-per-participant, total full-time equivalent (FTE) effort, and tobacco treatment specialist effort as model inputs and reach and effectiveness (quit rates) as outcomes. RESULTS: In the DEA model featuring cost-per-participant (input) and reach/effectiveness (outcomes), average constant returns-to-scale technical efficiency was 25.66 (SD = 24.56). When stratified by program characteristics, technical efficiency was higher among programs in cohort 1 (M = 29.15, SD = 28.65, n = 11) vs. cohort 2 (M = 17.99, SD = 10.16, n = 5), with point-of-care (M = 33.90, SD = 28.63, n = 9) vs. no point-of-care services (M = 15.59, SD = 14.31, n = 7), larger (M = 33.63, SD = 30.38, n = 8) vs. smaller center size (M = 17.70, SD = 15.00, n = 8), and higher (M = 29.65, SD = 30.99, n = 8) vs. lower smoking prevalence (M = 21.67, SD = 17.21, n = 8). CONCLUSION: Most C3I programs assessed were technically inefficient relative to the most efficient center benchmark and may be improved by optimizing the use of inputs (e.g., cost-per-participant) relative to program outcomes (e.g., reach, effectiveness). This study demonstrates the appropriateness and feasibility of using DEA to evaluate the relative performance of evidence-based programs.

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests.

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text]50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Mental health emergency presentations across the Barwon South West region in Victoria, Australia: An epidemiological investigation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine mental health emergency presentations across the Barwon South West, Victoria, Australia - an area comprising a range of urban and rural localities. METHODS: This is a retrospective synthesis of mental health emergency presentations across the Barwon South West (1 February 2017-31 December 2019). De-identified data were obtained from individuals who presented to EDs and urgent care centres (UCCs) within the study region, who had a principal diagnosis of a Mental and Behavioural Disorder (codes F00-F99). Data were sourced from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset and Rural Acute Hospital Database Register (RAHDaR). Age-standardised incident rates for mental health emergency presentations were calculated for the whole sample and for local government areas. Data on usual accommodation, arrival transport mode, referral source, patient disposition and length of ED/UCC stay were also obtained. RESULTS: We identified 11 613 mental health emergency presentations, with neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (n = 3139, 27.0%) and mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use (n = 3487, 30.0%) being the most frequent types of presentations recorded. The highest age-standardised incidence rates (mental health diagnosis per 1000 population/year) were in Glenelg (13.95), whereas Queenscliffe had the lowest incident rates (3.76). Most presentations (n = 3851, 33.2%) tended to occur for individuals aged between 15 and 29 years. CONCLUSIONS: Neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders and mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use were the most frequent types of presentations recorded across the sample. RAHDaR represented a small but meaningful contribution to the data.

Cardiovascular and Pulmonary Responses to Acute Use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems and Combustible Cigarettes in Long-Term Users.

BACKGROUND: The acute cardiovascular and pulmonary effects of contemporary electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) in long-term users are not known. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the cardiovascular and pulmonary responses to an acute 15-min product use challenge with ENDS and combustible cigarettes in regular nicotine-containing product users compared with control participants who do not use tobacco or vape? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Observational challenge study before and after nicotine-containing product use of 395 individuals who used ENDS exclusively (n = 164; exhaled carbon monoxide level, < 5 parts per million [ppm]; positive urine NicCheck I [Mossman Associates] results, 82%; fourth-generation ENDS), participants who smoked cigarettes exclusively (n = 117; carbon monoxide level, > 5 ppm; positive urine NicCheck I results), and control participants (n = 114; carbon monoxide level, < 5 ppm; negative urine NicCheck I results). RESULTS: During the 15-min product challenge, cigarette users took a median of 14.0 puffs (interquartile range [IQR], 9.3 puffs); ENDS users took 9.0 puffs (IQR, 7.5 puffs; P < .001). After product challenge, compared with control participants, ENDS users showed greater increases in adjusted mean differences in systolic BP (5.6 mm Hg [95% CI, 4.4-6.8 mm Hg] vs 2.3 mm Hg [95% CI, 0.8-3.8 mm Hg]; P = .001), diastolic BP (4.2 mm Hg [95% CI, 3.3-5.0 mm Hg] vs 2.0 mm Hg [95% CI, 1.1-3.0 mm Hg; P = .003), and heart rate (4.8 beats/min [95% CI, 4.0-5.6 beats/min] vs -1.3 beats/min [95% CI, -2.2 to -0.3 beats/min]; P < .001) and greater reductions in brachial artery diameter (-0.011 cm [95% CI, -0.013 to 0.009 cm] vs -0.006 cm [95% CI, -0.004 to -0.009 cm]; P = .003), time-domain heart rate variability (-7.2 ms [95% CI, -10.5 to -3.7 ms] vs 3.6 ms [95% CI, 1.6-9.3 ms]; P = .001), and FEV1 (ENDS: -4.1 [95% CI, -5.4 to -2.8] vs control participants: -1.1 [95% CI, -2.7 to 0.6]; P = .005) with values similar to those of cigarette users. ENDS users performed worse than control participants on all exercise parameters, notably metabolic equivalents (METs; adjusted mean difference, 1.28 METs [95% CI, 0.73-1.83 METs]; P < .001) and 60-s heart rate recovery (adjusted mean difference, 2.9 beats/min [95% CI, 0.7-5.0 beats/min]; P = .008). INTERPRETATION: ENDS users had acute worsening of blood pressure, heart rate, and heart rate variability, as well as vasoconstriction, impaired exercise tolerance, and increased airflow obstruction after vaping, compared to control participants. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT03863509; URL: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov.

A machine learning analysis of correlates of mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

It is vital to determine how patient characteristics that precede COVID-19 illness relate to COVID-19 mortality. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 across 21 healthcare systems in the US. All patients (N = 145,944) had COVID-19 diagnoses and/or positive PCR tests and completed their hospital stays from February 1, 2020 through January 31, 2022. Machine learning analyses revealed that age, hypertension, insurance status, and healthcare system (hospital site) were especially predictive of mortality across the full sample. However, multiple variables were especially predictive in subgroups of patients. The nested effects of risk factors such as age, hypertension, vaccination, site, and race accounted for large differences in mortality likelihood with rates ranging from about 2-30%. Subgroups of patients are at heightened risk of COVID-19 mortality due to combinations of preadmission risk factors; a finding of potential relevance to outreach and preventive actions.

The Relationship of COVID-19 Vaccination with Mortality Among 86,732 Hospitalized Patients: Subpopulations, Patient Factors, and Changes over Time.

BACKGROUND: Information on COVID-19 vaccination effects on mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 could inform vaccination outreach efforts and increase understanding of patient risk. OBJECTIVE: Determine the associations of vaccination status with mortality in adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19. DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study assessed the characteristics and mortality rates of adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 across 21 healthcare systems in the USA from January 1, 2021, to January 31, 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Adult patients admitted to participating hospitals who had COVID-19 diagnoses and/or positive PCR tests and completed their hospital stay via discharge or death. MAIN MEASURE: In-hospital mortality vs. discharge (outcome) and patient age, sex, race, ethnicity, BMI, insurance status, comorbidities, and vaccination status extracted from the electronic health record (EHR). KEY RESULTS: Of 86,732 adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 45,082 (52%) were female, mean age was 60 years, 20,800 (24%) were Black, and 22,792 (26.3%) had one or more COVID-19 vaccinations. Statistically adjusted mortality rates for unvaccinated and vaccinated patients were 8.3% (95% CI, 8.1-8.5) and 5.1% (95% CI, 4.8-5.4) respectively (7.9% vs. 4.5% with no immune compromise). Vaccination was associated with especially large reductions in mortality for obese (OR = 0.67; 95% CI 0.56-0.80) and severely obese (OR = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.41-0.67) patients and for older patients (OR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99). Mortality likelihood was higher later in the study period (August 2021-January 31, 2022) than earlier (January 1, 2021-July 30, 2021) (OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and increased significantly for vaccinated patients from 4.6% (95% CI, 3.9-5.2%) to 6.5% (95% CI, 6.2-6.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients vaccinated for COVID-19 had reduced mortality, especially for obese/severely obese and older individuals. Vaccination's protective effect against mortality declined over time and hospitalized obese and older individuals may derive especially great benefit from prior vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.